October 24, 2026: A tech rout gave the Nasdaq its worst day since June, Brent finished at a six-month high, and gold slipped under $4,000 for the first time since July. Bonds rallied hard on Thursday, then gave back part of the move on Friday as oil climbed again.
The Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan now meet within three days of each other, and traders are heading into those decisions with softer stocks, shakier metals and fresh questions over AI financing.
Here's what moved across indices, commodities, Forex, crypto and regulation before the central banks speak.
Key Takeaways
- The Nasdaq fell 2.6% Thursday as Meta’s spending and a capital warning from Nvidia’s CEO revived AI financing fears
- The 10-year yield fell about 18 basis points in a day, its biggest drop since March 2023
- Brent hit $116.72, gold broke below $4,000 and silver fell to its lowest since November 2025
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from inflows to a $636 million outflow, and the CFTC chair flagged scrutiny of oil trades
A Tech Rout Meets the Biggest Yield Drop Since 2023
Meta raised its capital spending forecast and fell about 7% despite beating on revenue. Hours earlier, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang told CNBC that neocloud demand is very strong, then added: “There’s a scarcity of capital.”
The semiconductor index lost 6.7% and the Nasdaq 2.6%. Bonds rallied, pulling the 10-year yield down about 18 basis points to 4.95% before it settled at 4.987% Friday, when the Dow shed more than 650 points as oil rose. The S&P 500’s 7,600 to 7,620 support held, and it closed at 7,623.68.
Instrument | Friday close | Week |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | -0.47% |
Nasdaq | 25,955.34 | -0.71% |
Dow Jones | 52,215.16 | +0.41% |
10-year yield | 4.987% | -11 bp |
Fast Fact
- Gold is about 28% below its January record. Silver is more than 55% below its own.
Oil Near $117 Squeezes Gold and Silver
Brent settled at $116.72, a six-month high, with WTI near $103, as Hormuz tensions and talk of fresh military action involving Iran lifted crude. That should have helped gold.
Kitco’s read is that higher oil also stokes inflation expectations and Fed tightening odds, blunting the safe-haven bid. Gold fell under $4,000 for the first time since mid-July and is heading for its worst week since June.
Silver fell about 7% on Thursday alone and sat near $53.90 Friday, its lowest since November 2025. The gold-silver ratio passed 74.
Instrument | Oct 23 level | Note |
|---|---|---|
Brent (Dec) | $116.72 | Six-month high |
WTI | ~$103 | Above $100 |
Gold | ~$3,996 | First sub-$4,000 since July |
Silver | ~$53.90 | Lowest since Nov 2025 |
Fed, ECB and BoJ Land Within Three Days
The Fed decides Wednesday, October 28, the ECB Thursday and the Bank of Japan Friday. Investing.com expects “hawkish holds” from all three. The Fed’s range is 3.75% to 4.00%, and 70 of 73 economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to keep its 2.50% deposit rate.
The dollar has softened into the meetings. USD/JPY broke under its 50-day average and touched a five-week low near 156.1 Friday, helped by short covering and intervention risk, with Japan’s core inflation at 2.10%. EUR/USD sits near 1.12.
Date | Event | Expectation |
|---|---|---|
Wed, Oct 28 | Fed (3.75%-4.00%) | Hold |
Thu, Oct 29 | ECB (deposit 2.50%) | Hold |
Thu, Oct 29 | US Q3 GDP, PCE | Inflation read |
Fri, Oct 30 | Bank of Japan | Hold, Outlook Report |
Bitcoin Holds $81,000 as ETF Flows Whipsaw
Bitcoin traded near $81,500 Friday after nearing $85,000 earlier in the week, leaving it about 5% lower for October after a 40% rally in the third quarter, Yahoo Finance reports.
US spot ETFs took in about $1.08 billion Monday to Wednesday, then lost $635.6 million Thursday, the largest outflow since June 25, led by IBIT. Another $138 million left Friday, and Crypto.com counted more than $470 million in liquidated leverage. The week still ended roughly $301 million positive.
Day | Net ETF flow |
|---|---|
Mon | +$527M |
Tue | +$23M |
Wed | +$528M |
Thu | -$636M |
Fri | -$138M |
CFTC Chair Says Oil Trades Are Under the Microscope
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig told Bloomberg the agency is watching prediction markets before the midterms, regrets that Congress didn’t pass the Clarity Act, and is scrutinizing oil trading around President Trump’s Iran announcements.
Bloomberg reported on October 14 that staff were told to withdraw a referral flagging questionable oil trades. Enforcement Director David Miller said the agency had probed the trading “from the beginning” and the investigation remains open.
The watchdog is shrinking: about 550 staff versus 760 in 2015, with Selig the sole commissioner.
Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Focus | Prediction markets, oil trading |
Oil probe | Open |
Staff | ~550 (2015: ~760) |
Conclusion
Stocks, metals, currencies and crypto are all trading one question: how long do rates stay high with oil near $117? Thursday’s bond rally showed how quickly the market will lean toward easier policy when growth fears spike, and Friday’s rebound in yields showed how fast energy can pull it back. Fed week gives the first real answer, with the ECB and Bank of Japan adding context for the dollar.
Whatever the outcome, the reaction will probably be sharpest where positioning is thinnest: silver, USD/JPY and leveraged crypto. Watching those three alongside oil and the 10-year yield is a practical way to read which side is winning.
FAQ
Why did the Nasdaq fall on October 22?
Meta’s spending plans and Huang’s capital comment revived AI financing fears.
Why did gold fall below $4,000?
Oil above $100 raised inflation worries and rate expectations, outweighing safe-haven demand.
When do the central banks decide?
The Fed on October 28, the ECB on October 29 and the BoJ on October 30.
Did Bitcoin ETFs see inflows or outflows?
Both: $1.08 billion in early week, then $774 million out Thursday and Friday.
What did the CFTC chair say?
He’s watching prediction markets and scrutinizing oil trades tied to Iran announcements.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial markets involves significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.