October 31, 2026: The Fed held rates with two officials voting for a hike, Alphabet’s earnings miss dragged the Nasdaq lower, and Binance disclosed the largest crypto hack on record.
The ECB and Bank of Japan also held, both leaning hawkish, while Brent pushed toward $116 and gold stayed under $4,000. Here’s what moved across Forex, indices, commodities, crypto and regulation this week.
Key Takeaways
- The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a hike
- The ECB held at 2.50% as Christine Lagarde announced she will leave in February 2027, and the BoJ held at 1.25%
- US Q3 GDP grew 3.4% and September PCE inflation reached 3.6%, while Alphabet fell more than 12%
- Brent is heading for a fourth monthly gain and gold sits below $4,000
- Binance reported a record $6.3 billion hack, and crypto saw about $1.5 billion in liquidations
Binance’s Record $6.3 Billion Hack Sparks $1.5 Billion in Liquidations
Binance disclosed a security incident affecting about $6.3 billion, the largest crypto hack on record, with roughly $3 billion frozen so far. Co-founder Yi He’s post on X set the line traders were watching, and Changpeng Zhao wrote that “It does look like a hack.”
User funds are safe.
— Yi He (@heyibinance) October 30, 2026
Binance will cover all hacking losses.
Deposits and withdrawals are temporarily suspended while our team conducts security checks, freezes funds, and works with law enforcement.
We will share a full post-mortem once the investigation is complete. Please…
Bitcoin fell about 4% to roughly $78,000, and liquidations reached $1.5 billion, 83.8% of them longs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs still took in about $424 million over three sessions, and Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell says the breach doesn’t look like a major solvency risk for Binance.
Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
Assets affected | ~$6.3B |
Frozen so far | ~$3B |
Liquidations | ~$1.5B (83.8% longs) |
Bitcoin | ~$78,000, down ~4% |
Three Central Banks Hold, All Leaning Hawkish
The Fed left rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, but the 10-2 vote had a twist: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both wanted a hike.
The statement now calls activity strong and says the Fed is waiting for the “accumulation of more information.” Chair Kevin Warsh insisted “there’s no soft inflation target,” while Wells Fargo’s Tony Miano warned that “less Fed communication could mean more market volatility.”
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% after discussing a hike, and Christine Lagarde said she will step down on February 7, 2027. Money markets priced about a 67% chance of a December increase.
The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with Hajime Takata favoring 1.50%, and said underlying inflation is consistent with its 2% target. USD/JPY slipped to 157.32, a third straight daily drop.
Bank | Rate | Vote | Next decision |
|---|---|---|---|
Fed (Oct 28) | 3.75%-4.00% | 10-2, two for a hike | Dec 9 |
ECB (Oct 29) | 2.50% deposit | Unanimous | Dec 17 |
BoJ (Oct 30) | 1.25% | 8-1, one for a hike | Dec or Jan |
Alphabet Drags the Nasdaq While US Growth Beats
Alphabet fell more than 12% on Thursday after search revenue growth of 12% missed the 15% Street estimate. The Nasdaq lost 1.38% to 26,184, the S&P 500 slipped 0.31% to 7,720 and the Dow 0.25%, though about 80% of S&P members closed higher.
The data gave no relief. The BEA put third-quarter GDP growth at 3.4%, up from 2.2%, and September PCE inflation rose to 3.6%. Follow the reaction on index CFDs.
Release | Result | Context |
|---|---|---|
Q3 GDP | 3.4% | Q2: 2.2% |
September PCE | 3.6% y/y | August: 3.4% |
Core PCE | 3.1% y/y | August: 3.0% |
Brent Near $116 Keeps Gold Under $4,000
Brent is heading for a fourth straight monthly gain, about 11% in October, and traded near $116 on Friday after reports that US officials briefed President Trump on possible strikes against Iran and a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
Hot data and oil keep December hike bets alive, so gold sits near $3,987 after touching $3,975 on October 23, its first break under $4,000 since July. Silver ended Thursday near $52, down 13.7% over the month.
Instrument | Latest level | October change |
|---|---|---|
Brent | ~$116 | +11% |
Gold | ~$3,987 | -3.3% |
Silver | ~$52 | -13.7% |
Regulators Keep Writing Crypto Rules While Congress Stalls
With the Clarity Act stuck in the Senate, agencies are filling the gap. The SEC proposed custody rules on October 1, the CFTC opened a rulemaking on crypto platforms with comments due December 14, and the UK’s FCA opened its authorisation gateway on September 30.
In Europe, ESMA and regulators in France, Germany and Greece were already examining how Binance serves EU customers without a MiCA licence. Franklin Templeton’s Chris Perkins says the hack shows the need for stronger cybersecurity standards. CNBC’s explainer on what happens next is at the same link.
Region | Action | Key date |
|---|---|---|
US (SEC) | Custody proposal for advisers and funds | Comments close 60 days after publication |
US (CFTC) | Rulemaking notice on crypto platforms | Comments due Dec 14 |
UK (FCA) | Authorisation gateway open | Apply by Feb 28, 2027 |
EU | Binance MiCA exemption review | Reported Oct 1 |
Conclusion
Rates, oil, AI spending and exchange security all landed in one week, and none has settled. US midterms arrive November 3, the Bank of England meets next week, US payrolls follow on November 6, and the Fed’s next decision is December 9.
FAQ
What did the Fed decide on October 28?
It held at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with two members preferring a hike. The next decision is December 9.
Why did Alphabet fall so sharply?
Search revenue growth of 12% missed the 15% estimate, reviving worries about AI spending returns.
How big is the Binance hack?
About $6.3 billion was affected and roughly $3 billion is frozen. Binance says it will cover all losses.
Why is gold below $4,000?
Oil near $116 and firm US data support bets on a December Fed hike, which weighs on gold.
When does the ECB meet next?
December 17, with markets pricing about a two-in-three chance of a hike.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial markets involves significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.