Weekly Market Outlook: A New Fed Chair, a Peace Deal, and a Market Caught Between Them

Bitcoin is holding the low $60,000s this week, caught between Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed debut and a freshly signed US-Iran peace deal. Friday's $10.5 billion options expiry is settling well below the $74,000 max-pain level.

Below, a breakdown by asset and by market.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin holds the low $60,000s, roughly $11,000 below Friday's $74,000 options max-pain level, as Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed debut overshadows the US-Iran peace deal.
The Fed's June dot plot shows nine of eighteen officials expecting at least one rate hike in 2026 — a sharp reversal that's lifting the dollar and pressuring gold, oil and crypto alike.
The CLARITY Act's path narrowed further this week after Trump blocked an unrelated housing bill, threatening to delay all Senate floor business, including crypto's flagship legislation.
Hyperliquid remains the only major crypto ETF category still drawing consistent inflows while bitcoin, ether, XRP and Solana all stay soft.

Asset / Market	Level	Weekly Move	Bias
Bitcoin	~$60,500	-4 to -6%	Bearish-to-neutral
Ethereum	~$1,600	-5%	Bearish, whale buying noted
XRP	~$1.06–$1.10	-4%	CLARITY-dependent
Solana	~$66–$71	-4%	Range-bound
Hyperliquid	~$61–$64	-2%	Relative-strength leader
Brent crude	~$74	-19%	Falling on peace deal
Gold	~$4,000	-5%	Falling on hawkish Fed
DXY	~101	+1%	One-year high

The Fed: Warsh's First Meeting Wasn't the Pivot Crypto Wanted

The FOMC held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, on June 17 — Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair.

Bar chart of Federal Reserve officials' 2026 rate projections from the June 17 FOMC meeting. Nine officials project no change or a cut, nine project at least one rate hike, six of those project two hikes.

The dot plot was the real story. Nine of eighteen officials now see at least one hike before year-end, six expect two. Treasury yields and the dollar both jumped on the release.

By Thursday, futures had priced a 68% probability of a September rate increase, up from 29% a week earlier. For a non-yielding asset like bitcoin, every point of tightening raises the cost of holding it instead of cash.

Line chart showing the probability traders assign to a September 2026 Fed rate hike, rising from 29% a week earlier to 68% on June 25, 2026.

Oil: The Iran Peace Deal Erased the War Premium

Crude fell below $70 a barrel on Thursday, extending losses for a fourth straight session and nearly wiping out all the gains made since the conflict began, as tankers resumed transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Line chart of Brent crude oil price falling from around $92 a barrel in late May 2026 to around $70 by June 25, 2026, as the US-Iran peace deal progressed.

Goldman Sachs cut its Brent forecast to $80 for Q4, down from $90, expecting Gulf exports back to pre-war levels by late July. A peace-deal signing reportedly took place in Switzerland this week, opening a 60-day window for nuclear talks.

Gold: Falling Even With the War Premium Gone

Gold slipped below $4,000 an ounce on June 25 for the first time since November 2025, even as the Iran risk premium drained out of the market. A stronger dollar and rising rate-hike odds are simply outweighing the disinflation story from cheaper oil right now.

Line chart of gold price falling from around $4,300 an ounce in mid-June 2026 to below $4,000 by June 25, 2026, its lowest level since November 2025.

Central banks haven't stopped buying, which is providing some floor under the metal, but paper positioning is clearly following the Fed, not the ceasefire.

Forex: The Dollar Is the Story Across Every Pair

The US Dollar Index is pressing toward its highest level in more than a year, and every major pair reflects the same hawkish repricing. EUR/USD broke down through 1.1496 and 1.1450 support to trade near 1.135, with downside targets at 1.12 and 1.115.

Bar chart showing dollar strength across major pairs as of June 25, 2026. DXY up 1%, EUR/USD down 2.25%, USD/JPY up 2.3%.

USD/JPY is stuck near 161.5–162, its weakest level since 1986, despite a Bank of Japan rate hike to 1% — verbal intervention from Tokyo hasn't moved the pair. A break above 162 opens the door to 164.

CLARITY Act: Trump Blocks His Own Housing Bill, Squeezing the Crypto Calendar

Trump canceled a signing ceremony on June 24 for a bipartisan housing bill, announcing he won't sign unrelated legislation until the SAVE America Act — a voter-ID bill stuck in the Senate — moves first. That threat now functions as a sequencing gate over everything else on the floor, including the crypto industry's market-structure bill.

Timeline diagram of CLARITY Act milestones from House passage in July 2025 through the June 2026 Senate standstill caused by an unrelated presidential veto threat over the SAVE America Act.

CLARITY still has roughly five weeks of Senate floor time before the August recess. The core sticking point remains an ethics provision restricting officials' crypto business ties — sensitive given the president's own holdings — not the underlying market-structure framework. Polymarket currently prices 2026 passage at around 59-67%.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading around $11,000 below Friday's $74,000 options max-pain level, with 80% of the $10.5 billion in open interest underwater.

US spot bitcoin ETFs have shed close to $6 billion over six weeks, though flows have whipsawed between outflow streaks and single-day inflows led by BlackRock's IBIT.

Price briefly touched the 200-week moving average near $61,300 on June 4 — a level that marked the bottom of every prior cycle.

Ethereum

ETH is changing hands near $1,600, still digesting a record stretch of ETF outflows. A wallet linked to a16z withdrew roughly $42 million in ETH from Binance on June 24, a move on-chain watchers are reading as quiet accumulation into weakness rather than panic exit.

XRP

XRP sits near $1.06 to $1.10, down about 4% on the week. Spot XRP ETFs logged their strongest month of 2026 in May, and the asset remains the purest CLARITY Act trade in the market — any sign the bill survives the SAVE America standoff could move it fast in either direction.

Bar chart of monthly net inflows into US spot XRP ETFs in 2026, with May as the strongest month at $118.29 million

Solana

SOL is trading in the mid-$60s to low $70s, still consolidating below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Spot Solana ETFs have already topped $1 billion in assets, and MoneyGram became an active Solana validator this week — a structural positive even while price stays soft.

Hyperliquid

HYPE has pulled back to around $61 to $64 after printing a fresh all-time high near $77 on June 16. It remains the only crypto ETF category drawing consistent net inflows, supported by a buyback mechanism that recycles protocol fees directly into token demand.

Key Events to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
June 26, 2026	$10.5B BTC options expiry	Heavy negative gamma below $74K could amplify intraday swings either direction
Late June	US PCE inflation data	Last major print before the Fed's September decision
Week of June 29	Senate floor schedule decision	Signals whether CLARITY Act gets floor time before recess
Early July	SAVE America Act standoff resolution	Determines if Trump's veto threat delays CLARITY Act too
July 4	White House's informal CLARITY deadline	A miss shifts focus to the August recess as the real deadline

Forward-looking timeline of five upcoming events: the June 26 bitcoin options expiry, late June PCE inflation data, the week of June 29 Senate schedule decision, the early July SAVE America Act resolution, and the July 4 informal CLARITY Act deadline.

Whether you're trading the Fed's rate path, the dollar's breakout across Forex majors, or positioning ahead of a CLARITY Act resolution — XBTFX gives you access to crypto, Forex, metals and indices from a single regulated platform.

Open a free demo account

FAQs

Is the Fed expected to cut rates in 2026?

Markets currently price roughly a 68% chance of a hike at the September meeting.

Why is gold falling despite the Iran peace deal

Hawkish Fed expectations and a stronger dollar are outweighing the disinflation benefit of falling oil.

What's actually blocking the CLARITY Act?

An unrelated presidential veto threat over a separate voter-ID bill, layered on top of an unresolved ethics provision.

Which crypto asset is still attracting institutional money?

Hyperliquid's HYPE remains the standout exception among major crypto ETF categories.

Disclaimer: This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading financial markets carries significant risk, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.