# Weekly Market Outlook: A New Fed Chair, a Peace Deal, and a Market Caught Between Them

> Bitcoin near $61K as Warsh's hawkish Fed debut meets the US-Iran peace deal. CLARITY Act stalls on a SAVE America blockade. Market breakdown, June 26.

**Published:** 2026-06-27  
**Category:** News  
**Author:** XBTFX Research  
**Canonical:** https://xbtfx.com/blog/weekly-market-outlook-a-new-fed-chair-a-peace-deal/

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Bitcoin is holding the low $60,000s this week, caught between Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed debut and a freshly signed US-Iran peace deal. Friday's $10.5 billion options expiry is settling well below the $74,000 max-pain level.

Below, a breakdown by asset and by market.

## **Key Takeaways**

- Bitcoin holds the low $60,000s, roughly $11,000 below Friday's $74,000 options max-pain level, as Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed debut overshadows the US-Iran peace deal.
- The Fed's June dot plot shows nine of eighteen officials expecting at least one rate hike in 2026 — a sharp reversal that's lifting the dollar and pressuring gold, oil and crypto alike.
- The CLARITY Act's path narrowed further this week after Trump blocked an unrelated housing bill, threatening to delay all Senate floor business, including crypto's flagship legislation.
- Hyperliquid remains the only major crypto ETF category still drawing consistent inflows while bitcoin, ether, XRP and Solana all stay soft.

| Asset / Market | Level | Weekly Move | Bias |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Bitcoin | ~$60,500 | -4 to -6% | Bearish-to-neutral |
| Ethereum | ~$1,600 | -5% | Bearish, whale buying noted |
| XRP | ~$1.06–$1.10 | -4% | CLARITY-dependent |
| Solana | ~$66–$71 | -4% | Range-bound |
| Hyperliquid | ~$61–$64 | -2% | Relative-strength leader |
| Brent crude | ~$74 | -19% | Falling on peace deal |
| Gold | ~$4,000 | -5% | Falling on hawkish Fed |
| DXY | ~101 | +1% | One-year high |

## **The Fed: Warsh's First Meeting Wasn't the Pivot Crypto Wanted**

[The FOMC held rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm) at 3.50% to 3.75%, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, on June 17 — [Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/business/federal-reserve-meeting-warsh.html).

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-6d1c3872-2e52-4586-af74-e0fafbd3d3bb.png)

The dot plot was the real story. Nine of eighteen officials now see at least one hike before year-end, six expect two. Treasury yields and the dollar both jumped on the release.

By Thursday, futures had priced a 68% probability of a September rate increase, up from 29% a week earlier. For a non-yielding asset like bitcoin, every point of tightening raises the cost of holding it instead of cash.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-2e6c6c24-af96-44d2-853c-18a88fc05a31.png)

## **Oil: The Iran Peace Deal Erased the War Premium**

[Crude fell below $70 a barrel](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil) on Thursday, extending losses for a fourth straight session and nearly wiping out all the gains made since the conflict began, as tankers resumed transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-07564e59-cf5a-4d94-a02c-d757f8bf9d9d.png)

Goldman Sachs cut its Brent forecast to $80 for Q4, down from $90, expecting Gulf exports back to pre-war levels by late July. A peace-deal signing reportedly took place in Switzerland this week, opening a 60-day window for nuclear talks.

## **Gold: Falling Even With the War Premium Gone**

[Gold slipped below $4,000 an ounce](https://www.cnbc.com/select/the-price-of-gold-today-june-25-2026/) on June 25 for the first time since November 2025, even as the Iran risk premium drained out of the market. A stronger dollar and rising rate-hike odds are simply outweighing the disinflation story from cheaper oil right now.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-8a1da4c3-2078-4224-a28a-ea9ea4f2caad.png)

Central banks haven't stopped buying, which is providing some floor under the metal, but paper positioning is clearly following the Fed, not the ceasefire.

## **Forex: The Dollar Is the Story Across Every Pair**

[The US Dollar Index](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/u-s-dollar-pulls-back-as-traders-ignore-strong-gdp-data-analysis-for-eur-usd-gbp-usd-usd-cad-usd-jpy-1606696) is pressing toward its highest level in more than a year, and every major pair reflects the same hawkish repricing. EUR/USD broke down through 1.1496 and 1.1450 support to trade near 1.135, with downside targets at 1.12 and 1.115.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-4c8613cf-40b0-4d3f-aa8f-da495ca36d79.png)

USD/JPY is stuck near 161.5–162, its weakest level since 1986, despite a Bank of Japan rate hike to 1% — verbal intervention from Tokyo hasn't moved the pair. A break above 162 opens the door to 164.

## **CLARITY Act: Trump Blocks His Own Housing Bill, Squeezing the Crypto Calendar**

Trump canceled a signing ceremony on June 24 for a bipartisan housing bill, announcing he won't sign unrelated legislation until the SAVE America Act — a voter-ID bill stuck in the Senate — moves first. That threat now functions as a sequencing gate over everything else on the floor, including the crypto industry's market-structure bill.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-5b1ca3de-ac54-48ae-889b-8dc45781b486.png)

[CLARITY](https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/06/22/in-clarity-act-s-final-weeks-its-path-through-u-s-senate-not-getting-much-clearer) still has roughly five weeks of Senate floor time before the August recess. The core sticking point remains an ethics provision restricting officials' crypto business ties — sensitive given the president's own holdings — not the underlying market-structure framework. [Polymarket](https://xbtfx.com/blog/polymarket-api-explained-how-polymarket-works-and-how-traders-use-ai/) currently prices 2026 passage at around 59-67%.

## **Bitcoin**

Bitcoin is trading around $11,000 below Friday's $74,000 options max-pain level, with 80% of the $10.5 billion in open interest underwater.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-61baff5e-fd95-48b6-8849-80f5c426e6f9.png)

US spot bitcoin ETFs have shed close to $6 billion over six weeks, though flows have whipsawed between outflow streaks and single-day inflows led by BlackRock's IBIT.

Price briefly touched the 200-week moving average near $61,300 on June 4 — a level that marked the bottom of every prior cycle.

## **Ethereum**

ETH is changing hands near $1,600, still digesting a record stretch of [ETF outflows](https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/ethereum-price-prediction-can-whale-buying-offset-etf-outflows/). A wallet linked to a16z withdrew roughly $42 million in ETH from Binance on June 24, a move on-chain watchers are reading as quiet accumulation into weakness rather than panic exit.

## **XRP**

XRP sits near $1.06 to $1.10, down about 4% on the week. [Spot XRP ETFs](https://xbtfx.com/blog/xrp-price-prediction-can-bank-adoption-fuel-the-next-breakout/) logged their strongest month of 2026 in May, and the asset remains the purest CLARITY Act trade in the market — any sign the bill survives the SAVE America standoff could move it fast in either direction.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-ed3d0470-31ca-47ff-ae9b-0a075e630dba.png)

## **Solana**

SOL is trading in the mid-$60s to low $70s, still consolidating below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Spot Solana ETFs have already topped $1 billion in assets, and [MoneyGram became an active Solana validator](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/06/22/moneygram-joins-solana-as-validator-amid-stablecoin-payment-push) this week — a structural positive even while price stays soft.

## **Hyperliquid**

HYPE has pulled back to around $61 to $64 after printing a fresh all-time high near $77 on June 16. It remains the only crypto ETF category drawing consistent net inflows, supported by a buyback mechanism that recycles protocol fees directly into token demand.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-26559adf-6700-4a50-980a-e4cf75cb7f20.png)

## **Key Events to Watch**

| Date | Event | Why It Matters |
| --- | --- | --- |
| June 26, 2026 | $10.5B BTC options expiry | Heavy negative gamma below $74K could amplify intraday swings either direction |
| Late June | US PCE inflation data | Last major print before the Fed's September decision |
| Week of June 29 | Senate floor schedule decision | Signals whether CLARITY Act gets floor time before recess |
| Early July | SAVE America Act standoff resolution | Determines if Trump's veto threat delays CLARITY Act too |
| July 4 | White House's informal CLARITY deadline | A miss shifts focus to the August recess as the real deadline |

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/06/data-src-image-c0789b5d-f15e-4bb5-9344-a0ab9365f6c6.png)

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## **FAQs**

**Is the Fed expected to cut rates in 2026?**

Markets currently price roughly a 68% chance of a hike at the September meeting.

**Why is gold falling despite the Iran peace deal**

Hawkish Fed expectations and a stronger dollar are outweighing the disinflation benefit of falling oil.

**What's actually blocking the CLARITY Act?**

An unrelated presidential veto threat over a separate voter-ID bill, layered on top of an unresolved ethics provision.

**Which crypto asset is still attracting institutional money?**

Hyperliquid's HYPE remains the standout exception among major crypto ETF categories.

*Disclaimer: This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading financial markets carries significant risk, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.*