# Oil Price Forecast: Will OPEC+’s September Output Increase Push WTI and Brent Lower?

> OPEC+ added 188,000 bpd for September. Here's the oil price forecast for WTI and Brent crude, key technical levels, and three scenarios traders are watching.

**Published:** 2026-08-03  
**Category:** News  
**Author:** XBTFX Research  
**Canonical:** https://xbtfx.com/blog/oil-price-forecast-will-opec-september-output/

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*August 3, 2026 — OPEC+'s decision to add 188,000 barrels a day from September closes out the group's 2023 voluntary cut unwind, and on paper that's bearish. In practice, WTI and Brent barely blinked. Quotas are not barrels in a tanker, and the barrels that matter right now are the ones stuck behind the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint.*

*So does the increase mean lower oil prices? Not automatically — it depends on OPEC+ compliance, how the Iran conflict and Red Sea shipping risk evolve, US inventories, and where the dollar goes next.*

## **Key Takeaways**

- OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd increase for September 2026, completing the rollback of the 2023 voluntary cuts
- WTI crude closed near $84.67/bbl and Brent near $87-88/bbl after the August 2 decision, both still up more than 20% for July
- Geopolitical supply risk, not the OPEC+ quota, is currently the dominant price driver
- The group signaled a likely pause in output increases through Q4 2026, leaving roughly 2 million bpd of 2022-era cuts in place
- Three scenarios frame the next few weeks: a de-escalation-driven pullback, a sideways grind, or a fresh spike above $100 Brent

## **WTI and Brent Crude Oil Price Snapshot**

As of the morning of August 3, 2026, [Brent crude was trading](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-08-03-2026/) around $87.38 a barrel, roughly 71 cents higher than the prior session, according to Fortune's daily oil price tracker. WTI crude oil settled near $84.67 after Monday's OPEC+ meeting, per CNBC, up more than 1% on the day.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/08/data-src-image-784ce2f1-a178-4beb-b858-3b9b982f2b45.png)

Both benchmarks are still carrying the bulk of July's rally. Brent gained about 24% for the month and WTI around 21%, the sharpest monthly moves for either since March, largely on the back of the Iran conflict and attacks on tanker traffic.

| Metric | WTI Crude | Brent Crude |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Price (Aug 3, 2026) | ~$84.67/bbl | ~$87.38/bbl |
| July monthly change | +21% | +24% |
| Move vs. prior session | +1%+ | +71 cents |
| Primary exposure | US Gulf Coast, domestic pipelines | Global seaborne, Hormuz/Red Sea routes |

That gap between the two benchmarks (Brent trading a few dollars above WTI) reflects where the risk actually sits. Brent prices more of the crude that physically has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. WTI, tied to US Gulf Coast and domestic pipeline flows, feels the same headlines but with less direct exposure.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/08/data-src-image-a132da70-8b31-413e-b250-51f4c5e4a325.png)

Anyone tracking a Brent price chart against a WTI price chart side by side this month has watched that spread widen and narrow almost daily with the news cycle.

💡Want to watch that spread move in real time instead of after the fact? Trade WTI and Brent crude CFDs with [XBTFX](https://xbtfx.com/page/xbtfx-energies-cfds-online/) and follow both benchmarks live on one platform.

## **What's Actually Driving Crude Oil Prices Right Now**

The OPEC+ decision itself is straightforward. Seven members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, [agreed on August 2 to add 188,000 bpd in September](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/02/opec-agrees-september-oil-hike-completing-rollback-of-voluntary-cuts.html), the sixth straight monthly increase and the move that finally unwinds the 2023 voluntary cuts.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/08/data-src-image-080f7229-9f8f-4659-9acc-767c5ebdfcb8.png)

Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon summed it up well: the group has finished restoring output, and the next problem is managing whatever surplus shows up once export flows normalize.

But quota math is only half the picture. A separate 2 million bpd of 2022-vintage cuts stays in place through year-end, and delegates have told Bloomberg the group expects to hold steady in the fourth quarter rather than keep adding barrels.

Meanwhile the physical supply story is messier than the announcement. Many members still can't produce up to their own allotted quotas because of aging infrastructure and underinvestment, so a higher quota doesn't always mean a higher tanker count.

Layered on top of that is a live conflict. Iran has claimed attacks on tankers transiting Hormuz under US escort, Houthi forces have pushed further into the Red Sea and forced ships to reroute around the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and strikes near Russia's Black Sea CPC terminal have raised fresh doubts about Kazakh export volumes into Europe. US crude inventories have also been drawing down, which tends to support prices independent of anything OPEC+ does.

Put together, you get a market where a production increase and falling prices don't necessarily arrive in the same week.

## **Support, Resistance and Invalidation Levels**

For WTI, near-term support sits around $80-81, roughly where the market found its footing before the mid-July breakout. Resistance is closer to $88-90, last tested in early spring. A daily close back below $78 would start to look like the geopolitical premium is genuinely deflating rather than just pausing.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/08/data-src-image-fe77a5c3-6613-49cf-a34b-7df7590cf024.png)

For Brent, support runs near $84-85, with resistance around $97-98, the area it touched at its highest point since May. A push through $100 would put the market back into territory not seen since the initial escalation of the conflict; [a break under $82 would suggest traders](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/oil-prices-today/) are pricing in an actual de-escalation, not just a quiet week.

| Benchmark | Current price (Aug 3, 2026) | Support | Resistance | Bearish invalidation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI crude oil | ~$84.67/bbl | $80-81 | $88-90 | Below $78 |
| Brent crude oil | ~$87-88/bbl | $84-85 | $97-98 | Below $82 |

## **Three Oil Price Forecast Scenarios**

The quota is old news at this point. What actually moves WTI and Brent from here depends on how the standoff around Hormuz and the Red Sea plays out, not on [last week's OPEC+ announcement](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/08/opec-boosts-september-production-188000-barrelsday). Three paths look realistic over the coming weeks, and each one hangs on something specific happening, not just a shift in mood.

![](https://ghost.xbtfx.com/content/images/2026/08/data-src-image-65a77dc8-9a55-4b09-9816-58f7bd559dc0.png)

Don't expect a clean line in either direction. Not with a live conflict still sitting on top of the supply chain.

| Scenario | WTI range | Trigger | What it would take |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Bearish | $72-80 | Hormuz/Red Sea de-escalation, OPEC+ compliance improves | A credible ceasefire or shipping-safety agreement, plus rising Gulf export volumes confirmed by tanker tracking |
| Base case | $80-88 | Current standoff persists, quotas hold flat into Q4 | No major escalation or resolution; inventories and the dollar do most of the day-to-day moving |
| Bullish | $88-100+ | Fresh attack on tankers, pipelines, or export terminals | A confirmed strike that actually halts loadings, not just headlines about one |

None of these is a prediction. They're the ranges that current positioning and the news flow point toward, and which one plays out depends on events that haven't happened yet.

## **What to Watch Next**

The [next OPEC+ meeting lands September 6](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-has-agreement-principle-september-quota-increase-pause-thereafter-source-2026-08-02/), when the group is expected to confirm whether the Q4 pause holds.

Weekly EIA inventory data, tanker-tracking reports on actual Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb transits, and any statement from Washington or Tehran on the state of the truce will likely move oil prices today more than the quota headline itself. Dollar strength is worth watching too, since a firmer greenback tends to cap crude even when supply risk stays elevated.

## **Trading the Oil Price Forecast**

None of this needs to be a spectator sport. Crude oil trading through CFDs lets you take a position on WTI or Brent crude futures without owning a physical barrel, and it works both directions, so a bearish or bullish scenario can both be traded.

💡If you're weighing how to trade oil or crude oil more broadly, XBTFX's[energy commodities](https://xbtfx.com/page/xbtfx-energies-cfds-online/) CFDs run on the [MT5 trading platform](https://xbtfx.com/page/mt5-trading-platform/), giving you the charting and order tools to react to Hormuz headlines or an EIA inventory print in real time.

Whatever your read on WTI versus Brent right now, testing it on a demo trading account first is the sensible move. It lets you practice risk management in trading, size positions, set stops, before putting real capital against a market this driven by geopolitics.

## **FAQ**

**Will oil prices go down after the OPEC+ September increase?**

Not necessarily. The 188,000 bpd addition is a modest supply-side nudge, but ongoing Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions have kept both WTI and Brent well supported through July and into August.

**What is the WTI oil price today?**

WTI crude was trading around $84.67 per barrel as of August 3, 2026, following the OPEC+ meeting two days earlier.

**What is the Brent oil price today?**

Brent crude was near $87-88 per barrel on August 3, 2026, still up sharply from June levels.

**Is Brent or WTI the better benchmark to watch?**

Brent reflects global seaborne crude and carries more direct exposure to Middle East shipping risk. WTI tracks US domestic supply more closely. Watching both gives a fuller picture than either alone.

**Will OPEC+ keep raising output after September?**

Delegates have signaled a likely pause through the fourth quarter of 2026, though the group meets monthly and can change course if market conditions shift.

*Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial markets involves significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making any investment or trading decisions.*